Fiscal impact and number of students

Say What logo

In a recent newsletter to subscribers (below), the Crescenta Valley Town Council (CVTC)  forwarded an invitation to a community forum hosted by GUSD.  In their emails to stakeholders, CVTC added some figures which have raised questions from transfer supporters. 

2.5_million

In the past week, Dr. Sheehan has confirmed that GUSD has not used the figure “400 students,”  let alone “over 400 students.”  The “2.5 million a year” figure also needs significant clarification.  For one thing, no reduction in costs to serve the transferred students could have been considered.

Number of Sagebrush students under discussion

  • In September 2013, GUSD provided consultant, School Services of California, with the enrollment data of Sagebrush students attending GUSD schools as shown below:
    • 260 students, including 151 at Mountain Avenue, 58 at Rosemont and 51 high school students
    • Since GUSD excluded all high school students from phase-in eligibility, only 209 students are potential transfer candidates to LCUSD over a six-year phase-in and just 20 to 25 TK/Kindergarten students at Mountain Avenue are potential transfer candidates to LCUSD in the first year of the phase-in
  • In July 2014, GUSD presented updated enrollment data currently posted to its website as shown below:
    • 353 students, including 151 at Mountain Avenue, 58 at Rosemont and 144 high school students
    • Since GUSD excluded all high school students from phase-in eligibility, only 209 students are potential transfer candidates to LCUSD over a six-year phase-in and just 20 to 25 TK/Kindergarten students at Mountain Avenue are potential transfer candidates to LCUSD in the first year of the phase-in
  • In August 2014, GUSD staff provided updated enrollment data to its board as shown below:
    • 372 students, including 161 at Mountain Avenue, 20 at other GUSD elementary schools, 46 at Rosemont, 2 at other middle schools and 143 high school and “other program” students
    • Since GUSD excluded all high school students from phase-in eligibility, only 229 students are potential transfer candidates to LCUSD over a six-year phase-in and just 20 to 25 TK/Kindergarten students at Mountain Avenue are potential transfer candidates to LCUSD in the first year of the phase-in

Fiscal impact

The CVTC estimate of over 2.5 million, based on 400 transferred students, would suggest a loss to GUSD of $6,250 per transferred student.  However:

  • School Services of California was engaged in 2013 by both districts specifically address the fiscal effects of the proposed territory transfer.  This educational consultancy firm is highly regarded by the CA Board of Education.  In their independent and unbiased report they determined and published that GUSD’s net revenue loss would be $1,751.23 annually, per transferred student.
  • Using the number of 229 potential transfer candidates at $1,751.23 translates to, at most, a potential loss to GUSD $401,000.00 per year.
  • The amount is not lost specifically from the neighboring schools but from the GUSD budget as a whole.

To protect Mountain Avenue from any financial impact and to maintain its status as a neighborhood school, GUSD has offered to create permissive boundaries for certain Monte Vista families with TK/Kindergarten students to come to Mountain Avenue in sufficient numbers to back fill any of the estimated 20 to 25 Sagebrush TK/Kindergarten students who ultimately choose to go to La Cañada schools for each year of the six year phase-in.

So the next time you read about a “loss of over 400 students at a cost of $2.5 million a year” — ask yourself, Say What??

Analysis by Tom Smith, Chair, UniteLCF!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s